US Import Surge Set for Record July as Tariff Deadline Drives Frantic Front-Loading

American importers are racing the calendar, and the result is poised to be the busiest month in the history of US container shipping.

The NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker projects 2.47 million TEU will move through US ports in July, the highest monthly total ever recorded, as retailers front-load ahead of an expected August tariff jump. The driver is a hard deadline: temporary Section 122 tariffs of 10% expire on July 24, with a fresh round targeting forced-labour-linked goods expected as early as August. The surge, in other words, is borrowed from the autumn. Volumes are forecast to slide from August onward, pointing to a softer fourth quarter.

For all the volume, the pinch point is not the docks. Even at record throughput, Los Angeles and Long Beach reported almost no ships at anchor over the July 4 weekend, leaving ocean rates and surcharges, rather than congestion, as the squeeze. Those rate pressures are real. Transpacific spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast have climbed 120% since mid-May, while East Coast rates are up 85%, with severe shortages of 40-foot containers persisting across China and Southeast Asia.

Carriers are reshaping their networks around the moment. Ocean Network Express exited several OCEAN Alliance transpacific loops, with slot agreements across four Far East to US West Coast services concluding in Shanghai on July 6.

The cost pressure is spilling inland. C.H. Robinson forecasts a 34% year-over-year jump in July spot truckload rates, with intermodal volumes running about 10% above the five-year average as shippers flee rising trucking costs for rail. For importers, the message this month is blunt: move deadline-sensitive freight now.