Record July imports collide with a tariff cliff as ocean rates surge

American importers are barrelling into the busiest month in the history of US container shipping, and the reason has less to do with consumer demand than with a date on the calendar.

The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker projects 2.47 million TEU moving through US ports in July, the highest monthly total ever recorded, as shippers race cargo across the Pacific ahead of an expected August tariff jump. The 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 lapses at 12:01 a.m. on July 24, and the US Trade Representative opened hearings this week on replacement Section 301 duties targeting roughly 60 countries over forced labour, a sequencing exercise designed to keep revenue flowing without a gap.

The front-loading is expensive. Spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast have climbed 120% since mid-May, while East Coast rates are up 85%. West Coast pricing sits near $6,700 per FEU with the East Coast levelling around $9,000, after July GRIs and surcharges added roughly $1,000/FEU. Diesel above $5 a gallon, against roughly $3.54 a year ago, is compounding the squeeze.

Notably, the pain is not at the docks. Even at record volume, Los Angeles and Long Beach reported almost no ships at anchor over the July 4 weekend. Long Beach moved 779,331 TEUs in June, up 10.6% year on year. The gateways are absorbing the surge; the bottleneck is price.

Two risks now cut against each other. Iranian strikes on regional vessels on 8 July threaten the tentative Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd return to Red Sea routing, which would keep Asia to Europe capacity tight. Yet some forwarders believe frontload demand is already topping out, with carriers adding transpacific capacity and mid-July hikes possibly failing to stick.

Volumes are forecast to slide from August onward. The bill for July's rush arrives in the fourth quarter.