Importers brace as Trump's global surcharge dies at midnight, with no replacement in sight

The 10 per cent global import surcharge that has underpinned American trade policy since February lapses at 12:01 a.m. Friday, and the administration has nothing ready to take its place.

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 gives a president 150 days and no more. Signed on 20 February and effective four days later, the surcharge hits its statutory wall on 24 July. Only Congress can extend it, and no extension legislation is pending.

The replacement is late. USTR blew through its 20 July completion deadline on the two Section 301 investigations opened in March, and the final rule proposing 12.5 per cent duties on 46 countries remains unsigned, with the administration signalling an announcement is imminent. Importers are left modelling two very different cost bases for the back half of 2026.

Capitol Hill is moving the other way. Senator Ron Wyden introduced the Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act on 22 July, legislation that would repeal Section 122 outright and require congressional sign-off on future tariff actions under Sections 301, 201 and 232.

The deadline has already reshaped the freight market. The NRF and Hackett Associates project 2.47 million TEU moving through US ports this month, the highest monthly total on record, as importers front-load ahead of the tariff transition. Asia to US West Coast spot rates have climbed 120 per cent since mid-May, with East Coast rates up 85 per cent. Volumes are forecast to slide from August.

The legal ground is also unstable. A Court of International Trade ruling on 7 May found the administration exceeded its Section 122 authority, though relief applied only to three named plaintiffs and the tariff stayed in force nationwide pending appeal. That appeal is running the same course that ended in billions of dollars in IEEPA refunds.

For anyone with cargo on the water tonight, the arithmetic changes at midnight. Nobody can say by how much.