America's Ports Refuse to Slow Down

The shipping peak season was supposed to be winding down by now. It isn't.

The National Retail Federation now expects September to be the busiest month of the year for U.S. container imports, at 2.31 million twenty-foot equivalent units. That would be 9.6 percent higher than a year ago. The federation has raised its full-year forecast to 25.7 million units.

"We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that's not the case," said Jonathan Gold, the federation's vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

A costly crossing

Strong demand has come at a price. Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. East Coast reached $11,259 per forty-foot container on September 17, just over 11 percent below the 2022 record. East Coast space has been especially tight, with Panama Canal draft restrictions limiting service options.

Reliability has not kept pace either. Global schedule reliability fell to 29 percent in August, a three-month low, after typhoons left vessels stranded off Chinese ports. Carriers are also cancelling sailings around China's Golden Week holiday, which adds to the backlog.

Eyes on the Gulf

Fuel is another pressure. Marine fuel prices remain high, and the wider energy market is still shaped by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week brought a possible way out. At the United Nations General Assembly, Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, offered to reopen the strait within seven days if Washington lifts its naval blockade and sanctions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned against calling it a breakthrough, and analysts remain doubtful a deal will come together.

For now, importers are racing to get holiday stock ashore before Thanksgiving. Most expect volumes to ease in October. Whether costs ease with them is another question.