Washington's Enforcement Push Reshapes the Freight Market

For three years the American trucking industry has waited for the freight recession to end. This week brought the clearest evidence yet that it has, and the reason has less to do with demand than with regulators.

Knight-Swift Transportation, the largest asset-based carrier in the country and the sector's reliable bellwether, reported second-quarter results on Wednesday that beat expectations across the board. Total revenue rose 12.6% to $2.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share hit 63 cents, up 80% year on year. Consolidated operating income climbed 44.4% to $104.9 million, with the adjusted operating ratio improving 240 basis points to 91.4%.

Chief executive Adam Miller was unambiguous about the cause. "We've just never seen the FMCSA, the DOT with the push that they're making on cleaning up our industry and taking the non-compliant, the bad actors out of it," he told analysts. Regulatory enforcement, not a consumer boom, is removing capacity from the road.

The effects are visible in the numbers. Knight-Swift's tender rejection rate ran at twice the industry average. Revenue per loaded mile, excluding fuel, rose 5.6% to $2.89, a figure Miller described as only beginning to recover. He expects revenue per mile to approach double-digit growth by September and is winning double-digit rate increases in bid season.

J.B. Hunt saw the same picture from a different vantage point, with executives noting that tender rejections, spot pricing and driver employment have all moved back toward 2022 levels.

The context is punishing. ATRI's annual report, released 15 July, put the average cost of operating a truck at a record $2.336 per mile in 2025, up 3.4%, with tolls up 13.2% and maintenance up 8.6%.

Rates are finally moving. So are costs.