Truckload Rates Hit Four-Year High as Study Puts Driverless Cost Parity at 2028

US truckload spot rates climbed to their highest level in more than four years in October, as carriers moved fewer loads but charged sharply more for each one.

Dry van spot rates rose 4 cents to $3.05 a mile, the highest since early 2022 and 98 cents above a year earlier, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. Refrigerated spot rates averaged 3.60 dollars a mile, up 1.12 dollars from a year earlier. Contract rates set records, with flatbed at 4.05 dollars a mile and reefer at 3.62 dollars. Dry van contract rates of 3.28 dollars matched the May 2022 high.

“Brokers moved fewer loads than a year ago and paid carriers about a dollar a mile more to move them last month,” said Dean Croke, DAT’s principal industry analyst. He said truck posts on DAT’s load board are running 22% to 26% below last year, depending on equipment type. Dry van volumes fell 2% from a year earlier.

Driverless trucks, meanwhile, could become cheaper to run than human-driven rigs in the US by 2028, according to a study by consultancy Kearney and the MIT Mobility Initiative. The report found that autonomous trucks cost about $4 a mile to operate today, compared with about 2.50 dollars for a conventional truck. It projects the two costs meeting at around 2.60 dollars in 2028. By 2035, driverless costs would fall to about 2 dollars a mile while conventional costs rise with inflation.

The forecast assumes 40,000 driverless trucks on US roads by 2035, and parity could slip to 2032 if only 10,000 are deployed. Regulation and liability remain unresolved. Fully driverless operation is currently permitted in only a handful of states, including Texas, Arizona, Florida and Georgia. “What remains to be seen is which business model captures the most value when the economics close,” the authors wrote.