Trucking: US May volumes tick lower as industry copes with effects of trade war

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US trucking industry saw slightly lower volumes moved in May as negative consequences of tariff effects are beginning to emerge, according to industry analysts.

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell by 0.1%, as shown in the following chart.

ATA chief economist Bob Costello said seesaw freight demand patterns make it difficult to discern any clear pattern in the market.

“Excluding the services economy – the largest part of economic activity – the goods market is all over the map, thus impacting freight levels,” Costello said. “Construction is soft, manufacturing is up and down, and consumers are cautious.”

April data was revised higher, to a 0.5% increase from a 0.3% decrease.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 112.0 in April, 2.2% below March’s reading of 114.6.

Both indices are dominated by contract freight, as opposed to traditional spot market freight.

The May Freight Index – Shipments report from Cass Information Systems showed a 0.4 decrease month on month and a 4.0% decrease year on year, not seasonally adjusted, as shown in the following chart.

When seasonally adjusted, the decrease was -3.4%.

“The trade war is having a variety of effects, with pre-tariff consumer spending still supporting freight demand,” Cass said. “The negative consequences of tariff effects are partly reflected in May data, as pre-tariff inventory stocking has started to turn to destocking, and those stocks will start to thin in the coming months.”

After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, according to Cass data. So far, it is trending toward another decline in 2025, Cass said.

In June, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index is likely to decline 2% year on year on the normal seasonal pattern.

The Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) from FTR Transportation Intelligence, which combines five major conditions in the US full-load truck market into a single index, held steady in April, as shown in the following chart.

FTR’s index lags the other two indices by one month.

“Although overall market conditions changed only marginally, the underlying factors shifted greatly,” FTR said. “Freight rates were still technically a negative contribution within the TCI, but they improved sharply versus March.”

FTR said freight volume swung from the largest positive of all factors in March to the largest negative in April.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said tariffs and supply chain moves to minimize them have distorted freight market dynamics even though the overall TCI implied essentially neutral trucking conditions in February through April.

“As we finalize data for May and beyond, those factors and swings in diesel prices are likely to expose the true instability in the freight market,” Vise said. “Meanwhile, developments such as rapidly rising truck insurance premiums and, plausibly, tighter scrutiny over truck drivers’ English language skills could serve to tighten capacity in the coming months. Uncertainty over the market’s direction remains quite high.”

This story originally appeared on ICIS