Truckers Turn Away Freight as Capacity Squeeze Tightens

US trucking companies are turning down loads at the fastest pace in years. Tougher enforcement on drivers, rising costs and a shrinking fleet are pushing freight prices higher heading into the holiday season.

Carriers are rejecting about 14% of the loads offered to them under contract, roughly three times the 2023 level, according to SONAR market data. Truckload volumes, by contrast, are only about 9% higher than three years ago. "Carriers are rejecting nearly four times as many loads on roughly the same volume," said market analyst Julie Van de Kamp.

Prices Climb

The squeeze is showing up across the industry. The Logistics Managers' Index put transportation prices at 92.7 in September, up 2.7 points from August and above 90 in five of the past six months. Transportation capacity fell to 34.4, its tenth straight month of contraction. Overall logistics costs reached their highest level since April 2022.

Fewer Drivers on the Road

Regulation is a big factor. More than 202,000 commercial driver's license (CDL) holders have been sidelined for drug and alcohol violations, and English-language proficiency checks are removing around 2,700 drivers a month. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has proposed making a failed English test an out-of-service violation, with public comments due on October 9. Federal agencies also plan to remove 110 CDL training schools after thousands of their graduates failed English tests.

Costs are adding to the pressure. Insurance premiums rose another 4% to 6% in early 2026, and record diesel prices are hitting smaller carriers hardest. About one in ten trucks is now parked because carriers can't find a compliant driver.

Tight Through Winter

New carrier registrations have hit a five-year high, but analysts warn this overstates the real gain in capacity, because the number of tractors on the road is still falling. Van de Kamp expects the market to stay tight until at least early 2027.

"The price signal is there," she said, "but capacity response isn't."