Spot Rates Break Their COVID Ceiling, and Nobody Is Cheering

The American truckload market has done something it has not managed in four years: charged more on the spot market than on contract. The reasons are the opposite of the last time it happened.

DAT Freight & Analytics reported that June saw the national average dry van spot rate surpass the contract rate for the first time since February 2022. Dry van spot rates ran 49 percent above year-ago levels during the week ending 3 July. Spot linehaul rates rose at least 39 percent year over year across van, refrigerated and flatbed.

In 2021, that curve meant a demand boom. Now it means the opposite. DAT's Dean Croke put it plainly: rates climbed much faster than volumes through June, with dry van volumes up 11 percent from May but year-over-year volumes flat to lower across all three segments. If demand were driving this, he said, volumes would be climbing too, and they are not. The lift is coming from carrier exits, fleet reductions and driver enforcement rather than any jump in freight.

The post-holiday week confirmed the fragility. Truckstop.com recorded dry van at $2.97 per mile, refrigerated at $3.45 and flatbed at $3.67, all down week on week. Refrigerated fell 7 percent, dry van 4.5 percent, and flatbed 3.8 percent — the second-largest weekly flatbed drop since 2008, behind only April 2020. Even so, rates remain 40 to 50 percent above a year ago.

Washington is moving in parallel. The EPA on 9 July proposed rolling back emission standards for new heavy-duty trucks. The proposal keeps the required 80 percent cut in nitrogen oxide emissions while easing warranty and compliance provisions, which analysts say improves fleet economics without necessarily adding capacity.