Hormuz Reopens, But Relief at the Docks Proves Elusive

The guns have quieted in the Gulf, yet the bill for America's importers keeps climbing — a reminder that in global shipping, peace arrives faster than price relief.

Following the June 14 ceasefire between the US and Iran, Washington has ended its blockade and the Strait of Hormuz threat level has been reduced further. But the path back to normal is fraught. Xeneta's chief air cargo officer warned that full normalisation will only be possible once mine clearance in the strait and port restoration are complete, forecasting a transitional adjustment period that keeps rates elevated and capacity tight through the third quarter.

The numbers tell the story. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has risen roughly 133% on the Asia to US West Coast lane between the first and 24th weeks of the year, with spot rates surging to $5,500 per FEU for the West Coast and $6,500 for the East Coast. Carriers implemented General Rate Increases twice a month from April through June, with another scheduled for July 1.

A new fight may be brewing over the waterway itself. Iran has signalled it may charge fees on ships passing through the strait, and the shipping industry is pushing back hard, with Maersk's chief executive warning that allowing such charges would set a dangerous precedent.

Layered atop it all is trade-policy limbo. President Trump said this week he would rather the US not be part of the USMCA pact ahead of a July 1 renewal milestone, leaving shippers to treat contingency planning as a permanent condition rather than a seasonal chore.