Hormuz closure keeps US ocean carriers on edge despite crude retreat

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping US ocean freight economics, with bunker fuel costs, vessel scheduling and carrier surcharges all under sustained pressure as the standoff with Iran enters a new phase.

Brent crude fell 3.8 percent to $97.38 a barrel last week, down from more than $115 earlier in the week, after Pakistan signalled that a US-Iran agreement could be near. The drop follows weeks of acute volatility driven by the closure of the strait, where more than 2,000 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. A US fighter jet disabled an Iranian oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman on 6 May, underlining how fragile any potential ceasefire remains.

For US importers, the headline issue is no longer just fuel cost but the structural reshaping of bunker logistics. Asian refuelling hubs including Singapore are now operating with 14-day lead times for some grades of fuel, a figure that S&P Global analyst Fotios Katsoulas has warned could become the new global standard if the strait remains closed for another month. Major tanker operators including Hafnia and Torm have declined to return to the waterway.

Ocean carriers have responded by pursuing additional surcharges on US trade lanes. The Federal Maritime Commission has twice rejected Maersk's request to waive the standard 30-day waiting period for an emergency fuel surcharge, with CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and Zim also seeking similar relief.

Trans-Pacific eastbound rates have firmed on the disruption, though demand remains soft. The National Retail Federation forecasts US container imports will continue to fall year-on-year through the first half of 2026. The combination of rising operating costs and weak demand is squeezing carrier margins at a time when oversupply in container shipping was already a structural concern heading into the year.