Capacity Crunch Sends Truckload Spot Rates to Record Highs

The great trucking recession is over, and the recovery arriving in its place looks nothing like the demand-led booms of years past.

Fresh data from DAT Freight & Analytics confirmed the shift this month: in June, the national average dry van spot rate topped the contract rate for the first time since February 2022. It is a technical milestone with outsized meaning. When spot pricing overtakes contract pricing, carriers hold the leverage, and shippers who spent three years dictating terms are now the ones scrambling.

The remarkable part is what is not driving it. Dry van volumes rose 11 per cent from May, reefer 5 per cent and flatbed 12 per cent, yet year on year, freight moved was flat to lower across all three segments. Rates are climbing anyway. Spot linehaul rates jumped at least 39 per cent year on year even as volumes stagnated, a divergence that points squarely at supply rather than demand.

That supply is vanishing. DAT attributes the squeeze to regulatory changes and stricter immigration enforcement thinning the pool of qualified drivers, compounded by a steady exit of small carriers and fleet reductions among the larger operators. Flatbed spot rates hit an all-time high of $3.69 per mile, propelled by construction, data centre buildout and a sixth straight month of manufacturing expansion.

For shippers, the pain is only beginning. Contract rates typically lag the spot market by around six months, meaning the record pricing seen this summer will feed into negotiations well into 2027. Tender rejections reached 17.55 per cent in June, the highest since 2022, as carriers walked away from cheap contracted freight.

The mood in repricing conversations has flipped entirely. Where shippers once fought every increase, the talk now is about locking in service commitments before capacity disappears altogether. Carriers, for once, can afford to be selective.