Is It Finally Time to Invest in Autonomous Trucking?

In these politically divisive and tumultuous times, it seems there are fewer and fewer things that can pull us together as a nation. We need another balloon boy or a Baby Jessica to rally around. But there are even more inspiring and noble deeds than rescuing small children in (fake or real) distress. That’s right, we’re talking about the return of Ice Road Truckers to television after a seven-year hiatus. Watching burly, bearded men in plaid navigate the icy outback of Alaska really gets the blood pumping for red-blooded Americans.

Too bad the machines are coming for their jobs as well. Someday. Probably.

We have been writing about investing in autonomous trucks and driverless trucks for the better part of a decade. Commercialization was always just around the next bend. In reality, it’s been a long haul, marked by spectacular crashes (literally and financially) and massive cash burn. In fact, we estimate (with a little help from AI) that at least $32.5 billion has been invested in autonomous trucking and related autonomous vehicle companies. More than $8 billion has been spent specifically by pure-play commercial trucking companies. Today, however, only two have (just barely) started commercial operations. 

The long-term payoff could be equally massive. A number we often hear is that the U.S. trucking industry is a $1 trillion market, and the global market is likely several times that number. The business case for autonomy is pretty clear as well, starting with a severe worldwide driver shortage. In theory, no one is losing a job – yet. On the practical side, autonomous trucks can haul stuff 24/7 – once the tech is safe enough for operations at night and in adverse weather conditions – at speeds and routes optimized for fuel efficiency.

Let’s take a closer look at the current state of the autonomous trucking industry and whether retailer investors should finally jump aboard.

Aurora in the Driver’s Seat

We’ll start with the clear leader, Aurora Innovation (AUR), and the only publicly traded self-driving semi-truck stock left standing from the 2021 cohort. Like most of its peers at that time, Aurora took the back roads into the public markets by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). We all remember how well SPACs worked out for everyone. (RIP Embark.) And, like many SPACs post-merger, Aurora overpromised and underdelivered. It originally projected revenue of $31 million in 2024 before surging to $123 million this year. In Q2-2025, Aurora made its first $1 million – and lost about $230 million. In 2024, it hemorrhaged more than $675 million with zero revenue. Driving to Mars might be more realistic than topping $2 billion by 2027, as the company originally estimated.

However, it has not all been wrong turns and dead ends. Earlier this year, Aurora became the first autonomous truck company to operate a commercial self-driving service with heavy-duty trucks on public roads when it started making regular driverless deliveries between Dallas and Houston. At the end of June, its trucks surpassed 20,000 driverless miles with three trucks on the road. The small fleet also began operating at night. The Aurora Driver system reportedly operates without remote human support 80% of the time, with a goal of 90%. You can join a ride on I-45 virtually here.

The company’s current business model is capital intensive. Aurora owns and operates the fleet of heavy-duty trucks equipped with its proprietary Aurora Driver technology, charging customers a per-mile fee for autonomous freight delivery through partnerships with major logistics companies including Uber Freight and FedEx, among others. The plan is to pivot away from fleet ownership and serve strictly as a technology-only provider This is all supposed to start in earnest by 2027 (coinciding neatly with the company’s financial runway). The current simple valuation ratio ($11 billion market cap/$4 million annualized revenue) of 2,750 illustrates just how ludicrously overvalued the company is today.

Two SPACs Coming Up Fast

After Aurora, the pickings become mighty slim. Two heretofore private companies, Plus Automation and Kodiak Robotics, have both recently announced their intention to merge with a SPAC.

Kodiak AI

Let’s start with Kodiak, which just completed (ink still drying on the dotted line) its merger with a SPAC called Ares Acquisition Corp II on Sept. 23 and started trading on Sept. 25 under the new ticket KDK. It is the only other pure-play autonomous trucking company to realize any commercial revenues. Its first paying customer is Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI), a logistics company for mining and oil field operations (aka, fracking). Kodiak’s business model is what Aurora is working toward – driver-as-a–service (DaaS). This capex light approach means customers like Atlas own the trucks and pay a per-mile or per-vehicle licensing fee for access to the self-driving tech. 

Atlas currently owns a fleet of eight Kodiak Driver-powered autonomous trucks that operate in the hellscape known as the Permian Basin in West Texas. Atlas has reportedly put in an order for 100 such trucks, which operate off road using Kodiak’s AI-powered approach to autonomy, which does not pre-map routes like the Aurora system.

The final deal between Ares and Kodiak netted the latter much less money than the original $500 million IPO raised. In fact, the trust had reportedly swelled to more than $551 million but nearly 90% of investors redeemed their money prior to the final merger, leaving about $63 million in cash. Institutional investors, including George Soros (apparently taking a break from his side hustle funding world domination) and ARK Investment, kicked in a total of $212.5 million. That gave Kodiak about $275 million before subtracting the usual fees. In a recent presentation, Kodiak revealed it has a quarterly cash burn of about $20 million, suggesting a runway of about three years if nothing changes. Originally “valued” at $2.5 billion, the newly merged company has a market cap of $1.25 billion at the time this article was published.

Plus Automation

Like Kodiak, Plus Automation is looking to break into the public markets by merging with a SPAC at a reported $1.2 billion valuation that will net the company up to $300 million – but we just saw how that went for Kodiak. And, like Kodiak, Plus Automation is adopting a DaaS business model, promising 85% gross margins and more than $40,000 per truck in annual revenue, which is significantly less than its rival is projecting. The company is also prioritizing partnerships with OEMs that will provide factory-built autonomous trucks equipped with its SuperDrive virtual driver. And, unlike Kodiak, Plus is not making any money yet, with commercial operations expected to begin in 2027.

This is not Plus Automation’s first SPAC circus rodeo. The company tried to push through a $3.3 billion merger with a different SPAC more than four years ago when blank checks were plentiful. The deal would have netted Plus about $500 million at a time before a high percentage of investors started pulling their money. But the company’s extensive connections to China, including a significant number of investors and partnerships, tanked its ambitions because the country was cracking down on tech startups listing in U.S. markets.

Pony.ai, a Chinese self-driving startup, suspended its SPAC merger for similar reasons around that time. Finally you have Tusimple which debuted with a traditional IPO but then ended up in hot water with accusations of data transfers to China and safety cover-ups. They’ve now pivoted to generative AI for video games and animation and trade on the OTC exchange where they belong.

Picking an Autonomous Trucking Stock

Of course, these are not the only companies in the race to commercialize autonomous trucking. Indeed, Pony.ai is still one of several private Chinese companies that are rapidly scaling operations. Pony.ai itself recently got the greenlight from government regulators to test unmanned truck platoons on expressways in China. A Canadian startup called Waabi is partnering with Volvo to develop self-driving trucks. The company is also in the first couple of years of a 10-year partnership with Uber Freight to give the latter’s customers access to autonomous tech.

In fact, the best investment in autonomous trucking may not be pure-play self-driving companies like Aurora and Kodiak but a pick-and-shovel play like Uber (UBER). Last year, we wrote a couple of articles that looked at how the ride-hailing company might benefit from driverless technology, including one specifically focused on self-driving trucks and Uber Freight. In addition to Waabi, Uber Freight works with Aurora, Volvo, and Daimler, which acquired Torc Robotics back in 2019, among others. 

The company’s approach is strategically brilliant: partner with everyone, bet on nobody exclusively.  If autonomous trucking succeeds, Uber Freight becomes the dominant platform. If it fails, it hasn’t burned billions on hardware development like the pure-play companies. The approach mirrors Uber’s capex light philosophy since 2020 when the company sold off its flying taxi tech to Joby Aviation and its self-driving tech to Aurora. Uber Freight accounted for nearly 12%, or about $5 billion, of the company’s 2024 revenues. 

Conclusion

We are finally seeing commercialization of autonomous trucking, but not nearly at the scale projected or needed for significant revenue growth. We expect that to be the case for the foreseeable future. While Aurora is clearly the market leader, the market is still very much in its infancy, with very limited routes and untested business models. We would not invest in any of these pure-play autonomous trucking companies today until we see significant revenue growth and widespread adoption. Uber remains an intriguing pick-and-shovel play through Uber Freight, though with limited exposure and stalled revenue growth on its end. For now, retail investors are best to keep on trucking.

This article was originally featured in Nanalyze.