Immigration Crackdown Threatens US Port Operations as Drayage Driver Crisis Deepens

Southern California's container terminals face a looming capacity crunch as new immigration enforcement policies threaten to strip the nation's busiest freight gateway of up to a quarter of its truck drivers, industry analysts warn.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration estimates that up to 5% of all commercial driver's license holders nationwide could be removed from the workforce due to immigration-related policies implemented in early 2026, according to Maersk's January market assessment. But the impact won't be distributed evenly—California, Arizona, and Texas could see driver losses reaching 15-25%, with Southern California's critical port drayage sector particularly vulnerable.

The timing couldn't be worse. The Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex, which handles roughly 40% of US containerized imports, is already experiencing elevated rail dwell times of 5-7 days due to holiday-season equipment strain. Industry executives fear losing 20-25% of the region's drayage drivers could trigger severe bottlenecks during peak cargo periods, particularly as importers rush shipments ahead of February's Lunar New Year factory closures.

Compounding the crisis, English language proficiency enforcement has prompted some carriers to avoid high-enforcement states entirely, effectively removing capacity from key freight corridors and creating routing inefficiencies that ripple across supply chains.

The driver shortage arrives as warehouse operator Prologis forecasts demand for logistics space in coastal gateways will reach a three-year high in 2026, driven by companies repositioning inventory closer to consumers to mitigate rising transportation costs.

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With foreign-born workers comprising nearly 18% of US truck drivers nationally—and significantly higher percentages in border states—the crackdown represents what one logistics consultant called "a self-inflicted wound" on America's freight infrastructure at a moment when trade policy uncertainty already threatens import volumes.

Maersk advised clients to plan proactively and build longer lead times for port appointments, acknowledging that "market stability matters when selecting drayage providers" in an increasingly constrained environment.